Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wettenprognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 56% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 52% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 45% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 42% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ goals | 39% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 38% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ goals | 36% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 30% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 72% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Switzerland, scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Wettenprognose, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Wettenprognose. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Wettenprognose ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props" auf Wettenprognose handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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