Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wettenprognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Rice 1H O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| Rice O/U 8.5 | 91% |
| Rice O/U 11.5 | 91% |
| Rice 1H O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| Rice 1H O/U 9.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| O/U 36.5 | 84% |
| O/U 26.5 | 77% |
| O/U 28.5 | 76% |
| O/U 32.5 | 76% |
| Rice O/U 14.5 | 76% |
| O/U 34.5 | 75% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| O/U 40.5 | 71% |
| Rice O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| O/U 44.5 | 62% |
| Fresno State O/U 23.5 | 61% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 46.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Rice O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Rice 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Rice O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Rice 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rice Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Rice Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rice vs. Fresno State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| O/U 48.5 | 48% |
| O/U 50.5 | 47% |
| O/U 52.5 | 41% |
| Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| O/U 56.5 | 37% |
| O/U 58.5 | 35% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| O/U 54.5 | 28% |
| O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| O/U 64.5 | 28% |
| Fresno State O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| Spread -11.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| Spread -24.5 | 13% |
| Spread -30.5 | 12% |
| Spread -27.5 | 9% |
| Spread -12.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 100% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Rice vs. Fresno State. In the upcoming college football game between Rice and Fresno State, scheduled for September 26 at 10:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Rice" if Rice win the game. This market will resolve to "Fre…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $552K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Wettenprognose. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Rice vs. Fresno State" auf Wettenprognose handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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