Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wettenprognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 21.5 | 94% |
| O/U 23.5 | 94% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 25.5 | 91% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 27.5 | 89% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 29.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 83% |
| O/U 31.5 | 80% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 78% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 78% |
| O/U 33.5 | 75% |
| Steelers O/U 17.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 72% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 11.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| O/U 30.5 | 70% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| O/U 34.5 | 69% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| O/U 35.5 | 67% |
| Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| O/U 36.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 63% |
| O/U 37.5 | 61% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 61% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 60% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 38.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| Spread -3.5 | 57% |
| Steelers O/U 22.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| Spread -4.5 | 55% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| O/U 40.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 51% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Falcons vs. Steelers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 8.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 13-18 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 21+ | 48% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 48% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| O/U 41.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 25+ | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-12 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 46% |
| O/U 42.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Steelers O/U 25.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| O/U 43.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 41% |
| Spread -8.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| O/U 45.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 37% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Falcons O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| 1H Moneyline | 34% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| O/U 46.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| O/U 47.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| Falcons vs. Steelers | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 48.5 | 30% |
| O/U 49.5 | 29% |
| Steelers O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -13.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Falcons O/U 22.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| O/U 51.5 | 22% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 22% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -16.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 50.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 52.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 54.5 | 19% |
| O/U 53.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 55.5 | 16% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -20.5 | 15% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| O/U 57.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 58.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| Falcons O/U 28.5 | 10% |
| O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 61.5 | 8% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 94% Chance für prognose: falcons vs. steelers. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Falcons wins, the market will resolve to "Falcons". If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". I…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $134K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Wettenprognose, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Wettenprognose. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Wettenprognose ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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