Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wettenprognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 25.5 | 96% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 27.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| O/U 29.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| O/U 31.5 | 90% |
| Vikings O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 33.5 | 87% |
| O/U 32.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 34.5 | 84% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| Vikings O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| O/U 35.5 | 82% |
| O/U 36.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 80% |
| Vikings O/U 13.5 | 80% |
| O/U 37.5 | 79% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 39.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 71% |
| O/U 41.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| Vikings O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| O/U 42.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| O/U 43.5 | 63% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 44.5 | 60% |
| Vikings O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| O/U 45.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 55% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 46.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Vikings O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Vikings Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Vikings vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 25+ | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 19-24 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 1-6 | 49% |
| O/U 47.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 48% |
| Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 47% |
| O/U 48.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 49.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| Vikings Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 12.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 42% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Vikings O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| O/U 51.5 | 38% |
| Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 1H Moneyline | 38% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Vikings vs. Bears | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 52.5 | 35% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| O/U 54.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 29% |
| Vikings O/U 26.5 | 29% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 25% |
| Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| O/U 56.5 | 25% |
| Vikings O/U 27.5 | 25% |
| Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| O/U 58.5 | 21% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| O/U 59.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 20% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| O/U 61.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Vikings O/U 30.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 63.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 62.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| O/U 64.5 | 13% |
| Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Vikings O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Vikings vs. Bears — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 97%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Vikings wins, the market will resolve to "Vikings". If Bears wins, the market will resolve to "Bears". If the game is postponed, t…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.7M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Vikings vs. Bears über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Wettenprognose, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Wettenprognose. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Wettenprognose ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Vikings vs. Bears" auf Wettenprognose handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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