Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wettenprognose) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 86% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| Jets O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 32.5 | 81% |
| O/U 34.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 75% |
| Jets O/U 20.5 | 72% |
| O/U 36.5 | 71% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| Jets 1H O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 66% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| O/U 39.5 | 63% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| O/U 40.5 | 59% |
| Packers vs. Jets | 56% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| O/U 42.5 | 54% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Jets 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Jets 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jets 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jets 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jets Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers vs. Jets: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jets Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| O/U 44.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| O/U 46.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 36% |
| O/U 48.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| Jets 1H O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| O/U 52.5 | 25% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Jets 1H O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| O/U 54.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| Jets 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Jets 1H O/U 20.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: packers vs. jets 96%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Packers wins, the market will resolve to "Packers". If Jets wins, the market will resolve to "Jets". If the ga…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $3.1M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Wettenprognose ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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